North Carolina @ Virginia, Week 12 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 12 · TBDUNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Carolina a 30% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 65–51–4 · Virginia won the last meeting, 17–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UVA
Home-field edge UVA
Model projection UVA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
North Carolina @ Virginia
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, UVA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Virginia
Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)
Wvs NC State34–8Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Carolina vs Virginia Stats ComparisonUNC vs Virginia Stats Comparison
| North CarolinaUNC | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | PPG | 34 |
| 10 | PA/G | 8 |
| 322 | YDS/G | 413 |
| 232 | PASS/G | 155 |
| 90 | RUSH/G | 258 |
| 5.6 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1 |
| 27.3% | 3RD DOWN | 21.4% |
| 0.11 | OFF PPA | 0.27 |
| 46.6% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.9% |
| 33.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 31.4% |
| 27.8% | RET PROD | 9.5% |
| 0.92 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.06 |
| 3.5 | SP+ | 8.1 |
| 4.9#42 | FPI | 7.9#32 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +2 |
| -0.05 | DEF PPA | -0.14 |
THE VENUE
Scott StadiumLocationCharlottesville, VA
Capacity61,500
SurfaceGrass
Opened1931
Elevation559 ft
FAN NEWS
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