GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·StreamingESPN+
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northern Arizona a 57% chance.
SeriesNorthern Arizona leads 8–1 since 2003 · Northern Arizona won the last meeting, 35–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) NAU
Home-field edge CP
Model projection NAU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Arizona @ Cal Poly
Your sims:Sims: CP 0, NAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northern Arizona
Wvs Portland State38–25Wvs Montana49–44Wat Idaho State38–31
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Arizona vs Cal Poly Stats ComparisonNAU vs Cal Poly Stats Comparison
| Northern ArizonaNAU | Cal PolyCP | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6 | PPG | 27.9 |
| 30.1 | PA/G | 31.4 |
| 397.5 | YDS/G | 401.4 |
| 245.1 | PASS/G | 243.9 |
| 152.4 | RUSH/G | 157.6 |
| 6.2 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9 |
| 34.7% | 3RD DOWN | 38.8% |
| 0.13 | OFF PPA | 0.10 |
| 0.19 | DEF PPA | 0.18 |
| 45.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 45.2% |
| 52.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 44.0% |
| 1.16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17 |
| +10 | TO MARGIN | −5 |
| -25.6 | SRS | -32.5 |
THE VENUE
Alex G. Spanos StadiumLocationSan Luis Obispo, CA
Capacity11,075
SurfaceGrass
Opened2006
Elevation278 ft
FAN NEWS
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