Southern Illinois @ Illinois, Week 3 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Illinois a 99% chance.
SeriesIllinois leads 4–0 · Illinois won the last meeting, 42–34 · 2013
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ILL
Home-field edge ILL
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Southern Illinois @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, SIU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Illinois
Wvs UAB42–23
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelILL 99%MarketILL 94%
Market 5 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $5,137 traded · as of Sep 9, 6:49 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Southern Illinois vs Illinois Stats ComparisonSIU vs Illinois Stats Comparison
| Southern IllinoisSIU | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5 | PPG | 42 |
| 26 | PA/G | 23 |
| 368.5 | YDS/G | 332 |
| 170 | PASS/G | 182 |
| 198.5 | RUSH/G | 150 |
| 4.9 | YDS/PLAY | 7.7 |
| 40.0% | 3RD DOWN | 50.0% |
| 0.12 | OFF PPA | 0.53 |
| 0.12 | DEF PPA | 0.14 |
| 36.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 56.8% |
| 36.7% | DEF SUCCESS | 43.0% |
| 1.61 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| – | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| – | ELO | 1595 |
| – | SP+ | 7.5 |
| – | FPI | 5.7#45 |
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
FAN NEWS
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