South Dakota @ Boise State, Week 3 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWhat's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Dakota @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, SDAK 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Boise State
Lat Oregon34–27
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBOIS 99%MarketBOIS 88%
Market 11 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $475 traded · as of Sep 9, 6:49 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Dakota vs Boise State Stats ComparisonSouth Dakota vs Boise State Stats Comparison
| South DakotaSDAK | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5 | PPG | 27 |
| 21.5 | PA/G | 34 |
| 493 | YDS/G | 274 |
| 252.5 | PASS/G | 181 |
| 240.5 | RUSH/G | 93 |
| 8.7 | YDS/PLAY | 4.2 |
| 40.0% | 3RD DOWN | 26.7% |
| 0.54 | OFF PPA | 0.11 |
| 0.11 | DEF PPA | 0.28 |
| 53.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 35.8% |
| 39.6% | DEF SUCCESS | 45.3% |
| 1.42 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.02 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| – | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| – | ELO | 1569 |
| – | SP+ | 5.2 |
| – | FPI | 7.8#34 |
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
FAN NEWS
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