Tarleton State at Bowling Green: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

MAC · Week 1

MASS @ RUTGThu, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM EDTBTN UALB @ BUFThu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM EDT AKR @ WAKEThu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM EDTACC Network SJSU @ EMUFri, Sep 4 · 6:30 PM EDT TOL @ MSUFri, Sep 4 · 8:00 PM EDTFS1 TAR @ BGSUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT OHIO @ NEBSat, Sep 5 · 11:00 AM CDTFS1 M-OH @ PITTSat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDTThe CW BALL @ OSUSat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDTBTN KENT @ SCSat, Sep 5 · 12:45 PM EDTSEC Network WMU @ MICHSat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM EDTNBC MVSU @ SACSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM PDT

All scores

TAR@

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT12:00 PM EDT

Tarleton StateTAR–

Bowling GreenBGSU0–0·MAC

StreamingESPN+

BGSU radioFalcon Radio Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Bowling Green opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives Bowling Green a 56% chance.

SeriesFirst meeting

WIN PROBABILITY

BGSU 56% TAR 44%

PROJECTED FINAL

Bowling Green

Tarleton State

BGSU win
56% One-score game
40%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge BGSU

Market lean BGSU

Model projection BGSU

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Tarleton State @ Bowling Green

Your sims:Sims: BGSU 0, TAR 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

Tarleton State2025: 1–0

Wat Army30–27 (OT)

Bowling Green

2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)

Wat Massachusetts45–14 Lvs Akron19–16 Lat Eastern Michigan27–21

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADTAR +2.5BGSU −2.5

TOTALOver 48.5Under 48.5

MONEYLINETAR +114BGSU −135

DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice

Tarleton State vs Bowling Green Stats ComparisonTAR vs BGSU Stats Comparison

2025 stats

Tarleton StateTAR		Bowling GreenBGSU
–	PPG	20.5#117
–	PA/G	24.2#63
–	YDS/G	306.8#125
–	PASS/G	151.2#126
–	RUSH/G	155.5#71
–	YDS/PLAY	4.9#120
–	3RD DOWN	36.7%#98
–	TO MARGIN	+2#54
–	OFF PPA	0.03#129
–	DEF PPA	0.15#60
–	OFF SUCCESS	35.9%#127
–	DEF SUCCESS	40.5%#55
–	RET PROD	-6.2%
–	EXPLOSIVE	1.24#68
–	SP+	-15.0
–	FPI	-13.7#123

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Doyt L. Perry Stadium

LocationBowling Green, OH

Capacity24,000

SurfaceTurf

Opened1966

Elevation676 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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