GAME DAY
Week 9 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Mercer a 77% chance.
SeriesMercer leads 7–4 since 2015 · Mercer won the last meeting, 38–0 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) MER
Home-field edge MER
Model projection MER
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
The Citadel @ Mercer
Your sims:Sims: MER 0, CIT 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3The Citadel
Lvs Tennessee Tech28–13Lat Texas A&M41–0Lvs East Tennessee State34–16
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMER 77%MarketMER 77%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $381 traded · as of Oct 24, 11:40 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
The Citadel vs Mercer Stats ComparisonThe Citadel vs Mercer Stats Comparison
| The CitadelCIT | MercerMER | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | PPG | 30.6 |
| 33.8 | PA/G | 17.1 |
| 296.5 | YDS/G | 422.5 |
| 97.4 | PASS/G | 167 |
| 199.1 | RUSH/G | 255.5 |
| 4.8 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5 |
| 38.5% | 3RD DOWN | 29.8% |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | +5 |
| 0.02 | OFF PPA | 0.19 |
| 37.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 41.4% |
| 46.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4% |
| 1.25 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26 |
| 0.20 | DEF PPA | -0.03 |
| -39.4 | SRS | -30.9 |
THE VENUE
Five Star Stadium at the Moye ComplexLocationMacon, GA
Capacity10,200
SurfaceTurf
Opened2013
Elevation455 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about The Citadel or Mercer?
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