UCLA @ California, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CaliforniaCAL0–0·ACC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
California opens a 2.5-point underdog. Our model gives California a 47% chance.
SeriesUCLA leads 58–35–1 · California won the last meeting, 33–7 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
CAL win
47% One-score game
41% Cover UCLA −2.5
47%
47% One-score game
41% Cover UCLA −2.5
47%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) CAL
Home-field edge CAL
Market lean UCLA
Model projection UCLA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UCLA @ California
Your sims:Sims: CAL 0, UCLA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
UCLA54%
California47%
CFB Vibes ModelUCLA 53%MarketUCLA 54%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $55,858 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADCAL +2.5UCLA −2.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINECAL +105UCLA −125
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
California vs UCLA Stats ComparisonCalifornia vs UCLA Stats Comparison
2025 stats| CaliforniaCAL | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.3#86 | PPG | 18.2#125 |
| 27.2#82 | PA/G | 33.4#127 |
| 357.8#89 | YDS/G | 319.8#120 |
| 275.3#19 | PASS/G | 180.2#115 |
| 82.5#133 | RUSH/G | 139.6#85 |
| 5.2#104 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 40.4%#61 | 3RD DOWN | 37.3%#92 |
| 0.13#93 | OFF PPA | 0.12#96 |
| 0.16#74 | DEF PPA | 0.26#126 |
| 40.7%#89 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.2%#81 |
| 42.0%#77 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.8%#135 |
| 58.3% | RET PROD | 57.0% |
| 1.24#64 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#112 |
| 3.0 | SP+ | 5.4 |
| 0.9#62 | FPI | 0.5#64 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
California Memorial StadiumLocationBerkeley, CA
Capacity62,467
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation411 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
