UNLV @ Hawai'i, Week 1 · 2026
@
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Hawai'iHAW0–1·MWC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Hawai'i opens a 3-point underdog. Our model gives Hawai'i a 44% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 16–16 · UNLV won the last meeting, 38–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNLV
Home-field edge HAW
Market lean UNLV
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UNLV @ Hawai'i
Your sims:Sims: HAW 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Hawai'i
Hawai'i2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lat Stanford37–27Hawai'i2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 56%MarketUNLV 56%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $18,568 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADHAW +3UNLV −3
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEHAW +120UNLV −142
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Hawai'i vs UNLV Stats ComparisonHawai'i vs UNLV Stats Comparison
| Hawai'iHAW | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | PPG | 21 |
| 37 | PA/G | 27 |
| 322 | YDS/G | 460 |
| 276 | PASS/G | 291 |
| 46 | RUSH/G | 169 |
| 4.4 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8 |
| 41.2% | 3RD DOWN | 20.0% |
| 0.05 | OFF PPA | 0.09 |
| 0.33 | DEF PPA | 0.29 |
| 35.5% | OFF SUCCESS | 33.3% |
| 45.2% | DEF SUCCESS | 47.5% |
| 64.5% | RET PROD | 15.4% |
| 1.26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.46 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| -2.6 | SP+ | 3.6 |
| -2.4#76 | FPI | 1.8#58 |
THE VENUE
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexLocationHonolulu, HI
Capacity15,194
SurfaceTurf
Opened2015
Elevation66 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Hawai'i?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
