Western Kentucky @ Nevada, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Western Kentucky opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives Western Kentucky a 57% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 1–0 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 31–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) WKU
Home-field edge NEV
Market lean WKU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Western Kentucky @ Nevada
Your sims:Sims: NEV 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)
Wvs Southern Miss27–16Lat Jacksonville State37–34Lat LSU13–10Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- Western Kentucky55%
Nevada45%
CFB Vibes ModelWKU 57%MarketWKU 55%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $1,409 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADWKU −2.5NEV +2.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEWKU −130NEV +110
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Western Kentucky vs Nevada Stats ComparisonWKU vs Nevada Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Western KentuckyWKU | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5#49 | PPG | 17.6#128 |
| 22.8#47 | PA/G | 27.5#87 |
| 406.8#45 | YDS/G | 302.4#126 |
| 272.2#22 | PASS/G | 147.2#127 |
| 134.6#94 | RUSH/G | 155.2#73 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5#117 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 32.1%#127 |
| 0.17#70 | OFF PPA | 0.03#127 |
| 0.10#39 | DEF PPA | 0.19#90 |
| 43.4%#53 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.1%#120 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 83.7% | RET PROD | 35.5% |
| 1.20#95 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#90 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | −12#129 |
| -7.3 | SP+ | -11.7 |
| -4.9#86 | FPI | -11.9#116 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Mackay StadiumLocationReno, NV
Capacity27,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation4,615 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
