Western Michigan @ Michigan, Week 1 · 2026
@#16
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Western Michigan opens a 27.5-point underdog. Our model gives Western Michigan a 2% chance.
SeriesMichigan leads 8–0 · Michigan won the last meeting, 47–14 · 2021
2% One-score game
6% Cover MICH −27.5
63%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: WMU 0, MICH 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Western Michigan2025: 10–4 (7–1 MAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $23,558 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Western Michigan vs Michigan Stats ComparisonWMU vs Michigan Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Western MichiganWMU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.9#88 | PPG | 27.5#69 |
| 17.4#9 | PA/G | 20.4#29 |
| 343#103 | YDS/G | 397.9#58 |
| 138.5#130 | PASS/G | 186.8#107 |
| 204.5#16 | RUSH/G | 211.2#14 |
| 5.2#104 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 40.3%#62 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#32 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.10#106 | OFF PPA | 0.20#47 |
| 0.05#17 | DEF PPA | 0.11#52 |
| 42.3%#69 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#32 |
| 37.5%#23 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8%#70 |
| 99.7% | RET PROD | 69.2% |
| 1.05#136 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#129 |
| -6.0 | SP+ | 17.0 |
| -4.0#82 | FPI | 15.9#15 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
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