GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·StreamingESPN+ / Scripps Sports
MTST radioBobcat Radio Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Montana State a 91% chance.
SeriesMontana State leads 7–4 since 2003 · Montana State won the last meeting, 34–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) MTST
Home-field edge MTST
Model projection MTST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Your sims:Sims: MTST 0, CP 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Cal Poly vs Montana State Stats ComparisonCal Poly vs MTST Stats Comparison
| Cal PolyCP | Montana StateMTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.9 | PPG | 39.5 |
| 31.4 | PA/G | 20.4 |
| 401.4 | YDS/G | 446.4 |
| 243.9 | PASS/G | 239.1 |
| 157.6 | RUSH/G | 207.2 |
| 5.9 | YDS/PLAY | 7 |
| 38.8% | 3RD DOWN | 48.8% |
| 0.10 | OFF PPA | 0.31 |
| 45.2% | OFF SUCCESS | 52.8% |
| 44.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 42.4% |
| 1.17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16 |
| −5 | TO MARGIN | +7 |
| 0.18 | DEF PPA | -0.01 |
| -32.5 | SRS | -14.0 |
THE VENUE
Bobcat StadiumLocationBozeman, MT
Capacity17,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation4,946 ft
FAN NEWS
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