GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Dayton a 77% chance.
SeriesDayton leads 6–1 since 2013 · Dayton won the last meeting, 48–14 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) DAY
Home-field edge STET
Model projection DAY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Dayton @ Stetson
Your sims:Sims: STET 0, DAY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelDAY 77%MarketDAY 73%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $2,343 traded · as of Oct 25, 1:02 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Dayton vs Stetson Stats ComparisonDayton vs Stetson Stats Comparison
| DaytonDAY | StetsonSTET | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | PPG | 23.2 |
| 20 | PA/G | 43.1 |
| 371.1 | YDS/G | 322.5 |
| 222 | PASS/G | 242 |
| 149.1 | RUSH/G | 80.5 |
| 5.6 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4 |
| 42.3% | 3RD DOWN | 34.3% |
| 0.04 | DEF PPA | 0.33 |
| 41.6% | OFF SUCCESS | 35.7% |
| 39.2% | DEF SUCCESS | 48.7% |
| 1.28 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.39 |
| +5 | TO MARGIN | −6 |
| 0.10 | OFF PPA | -0.04 |
| -36.6 | SRS | -52.9 |
THE VENUE
Spec Martin Municipal StadiumLocationDeLand, FL
Capacity6,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1941
Elevation48 ft
FAN NEWS
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