Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State, Week 9 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 34% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting, 54–13 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NMSU win
34% One-score game
36%
34% One-score game
36%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) JXST
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection JXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Jacksonville St @ New Mexico St
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, JXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat North Dakota State33–7Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State Stats ComparisonNMSU vs JXST Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PPG | 7 |
| 34 | PA/G | 33 |
| 319 | YDS/G | 170 |
| 272 | PASS/G | 85 |
| 47 | RUSH/G | 85 |
| 4.8 | YDS/PLAY | 3.1 |
| 58.8% | 3RD DOWN | 20.0% |
| 0.29 | DEF PPA | 0.22 |
| 34.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 30.9% |
| 44.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0% |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 49.5% |
| 1.64 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.98 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| 0.16 | OFF PPA | -0.32 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -8.5#101 |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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