Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee, Week 9 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 28% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Kennesaw State won the last meeting, 24–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) KENN
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection KENN
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Kennesaw St @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, KENN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State2025: 10–4 (7–1 CUSA)
Lvs Western Michigan41–6Wat Jacksonville State19–15Wat Liberty48–42 (OT)Kennesaw State2025: 10–4 (7–1 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State Stats ComparisonMTSU vs KENN Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 26.7#75 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 25.5#73 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 403.1#51 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 243.1#53 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 160.1#66 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 40.0%#67 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.15#79 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.17#77 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.1%#83 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.3%#80 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 6.1% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#23 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -12.9 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -9.0#106 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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