New Mexico State @ Missouri State, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·MOST radioBears Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 57% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 24–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MOST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Missouri St
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonMOST vs NMSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Missouri StateMOST | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 21.6#111 |
| 28.8#91 | PA/G | 27.6#88 |
| 393.4#64 | YDS/G | 327.8#115 |
| 279.7#16 | PASS/G | 250.3#45 |
| 113.7#118 | RUSH/G | 77.4#136 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#127 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.17#66 | OFF PPA | 0.03#128 |
| 0.24#122 | DEF PPA | 0.10#41 |
| 39.3%#110 | OFF SUCCESS | 36.4%#124 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.49#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#58 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| -19.1 | SP+ | -18.5 |
| -10.3#110 | FPI | -15.7#129 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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