Oregon State @ Houston, Week 1 · 2026
@#23
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·HoustonHOU0–0·B12
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Houston opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Houston a 91% chance.
SeriesHouston leads 3–1 · Houston won the last meeting, 27–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) HOU
Home-field edge HOU
Market lean HOU
Model projection HOU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Oregon State @ Houston
Your sims:Sims: HOU 0, ORST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Oregon State
Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)
Lat Washington State32–8Lat Tulsa31–14Lvs Sam Houston21–17Oregon State2025: 2–10 (1–1 PAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADORST +20.5HOU −20.5
TOTALOver 49.5Under 49.5
MONEYLINEORST +1000HOU −1800
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Oregon State vs Houston Stats ComparisonOregon State vs Houston Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Oregon StateORST | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.2#125 | PPG | 29.1#55 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 22.8#47 |
| 352.7#95 | YDS/G | 395#62 |
| 225.4#66 | PASS/G | 216.4#83 |
| 127.2#103 | RUSH/G | 178.6#40 |
| 5.1#111 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 35.9%#102 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#56 |
| 0.06#120 | OFF PPA | 0.11#101 |
| 0.18#87 | DEF PPA | 0.11#47 |
| 42.4%#67 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.5%#79 |
| 38.8%#38 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.2%#62 |
| 57.9% | RET PROD | 81.2% |
| 1.07#135 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | +4#43 |
| -5.6 | SP+ | 7.4 |
| -8.1#98 | FPI | 7.1#35 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
TDECU StadiumLocationHouston, TX
Capacity40,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2014
Elevation31 ft
FAN NEWS
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