Texas State @ Texas, Week 1 · 2026
@#5
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas opens a 29.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 97% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 1–0 · Texas won the last meeting, 36–0 · 1930
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TEX
Home-field edge TEX
Market lean TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Texas State @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTXST +29.5TEX −29.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINETXST +2500TEX −9000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Texas State vs Texas Stats ComparisonTexas State vs Texas Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas StateTXST | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#12 | PPG | 30.5#41 |
| 29#95 | PA/G | 20.3#28 |
| 473.5#5 | YDS/G | 388.7#69 |
| 250.8#43 | PASS/G | 250.7#44 |
| 222.7#10 | RUSH/G | 138#90 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 46.0%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 39.2%#75 |
| 0.31#10 | OFF PPA | 0.18#57 |
| 0.16#71 | DEF PPA | 0.10#40 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.5%#93 |
| 41.1%#61 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.2%#43 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 72.1% |
| 1.35#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.37#13 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| -2.1 | SP+ | 22.8 |
| -4.3#84 | FPI | 26.9#2 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
