Toledo @ Michigan State, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan State opens a 9.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan State a 72% chance.
SeriesMichigan State leads 1–0 · Michigan State won the last meeting, 58–0 · 1925
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TOL
Home-field edge MSU
Market lean MSU
Model projection MSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Toledo @ Michigan State
Your sims:Sims: MSU 0, TOL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTOL +9.5MSU −9.5
TOTALOver 47.5Under 47.5
MONEYLINETOL +295MSU −375
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Toledo vs Michigan State Stats ComparisonToledo vs MSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| ToledoTOL | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8#37 | PPG | 24.6#89 |
| 13.3#4 | PA/G | 29.9#104 |
| 415.8#34 | YDS/G | 345.3#99 |
| 238.1#57 | PASS/G | 222.7#70 |
| 177.7#41 | RUSH/G | 122.7#110 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 40.2%#64 | 3RD DOWN | 34.6%#110 |
| 0.20#43 | OFF PPA | 0.13#90 |
| 44.6%#43 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.1%#72 |
| 33.1%#4 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.6%#110 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 20.9% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#98 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -0.08#1 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| -9.1 | SP+ | 2.2 |
| -3.0#79 | FPI | 0.3#65 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Spartan StadiumLocationEast Lansing, MI
Capacity75,005
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation836 ft
FAN NEWS
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