Florida Atlantic @ Florida, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida opens a 26.5-point favorite. Our model gives Florida a 97% chance.
SeriesFlorida leads 4–0 · Florida won the last meeting, 35–14 · 2021
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
FLA win
97% One-score game
8% Cover FLA −26.5
57%
97% One-score game
8% Cover FLA −26.5
57%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) FLA
Home-field edge FLA
Market lean FLA
Model projection FLA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Your sims:Sims: FLA 0, FAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic2025: 4–8 (3–5 AAC)
Lvs East Carolina42–3Lvs UConn48–45Lat Tulane35–24Florida Atlantic2025: 4–8 (3–5 AAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelFLA 97%MarketFLA 96%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $36,124 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFLA −26.5FAU +26.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINEFLA −4500FAU +1700
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Florida vs Florida Atlantic Stats ComparisonFlorida vs FAU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| FloridaFLA | Florida AtlanticFAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 24#60 | PA/G | 36.3#131 |
| 341.3#104 | YDS/G | 445.7#22 |
| 204.6#93 | PASS/G | 340.5#1 |
| 136.8#91 | RUSH/G | 105.2#123 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 34.4%#113 | 3RD DOWN | 36.8%#96 |
| 0.14#87 | OFF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 0.17#81 | DEF PPA | 0.22#113 |
| 42.9%#62 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.3%#98 |
| 42.9%#91 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.7%#99 |
| 69.1% | RET PROD | 68.4% |
| 1.10#133 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.40#7 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | −21#136 |
| 15.2 | SP+ | -6.1 |
| 13.6#18 | FPI | -11.3#115 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Ben Hill Griffin StadiumLocationGainesville, FL
Capacity88,548
SurfaceGrass
Opened1930
Elevation148 ft
FAN NEWS
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