Texas State @ Texas, Week 1 · 2026
@#5
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas opens a 29.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas a 97% chance.
SeriesTexas leads 1–0 · Texas won the last meeting, 36–0 · 1930
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TEX
Home-field edge TEX
Market lean TEX
Model projection TEX
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Texas State @ Texas
Your sims:Sims: TEX 0, TXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTEX −29.5TXST +29.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINETEX −9000TXST +2500
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Texas vs Texas State Stats ComparisonTexas vs Texas State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TexasTEX | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.5#41 | PPG | 36.5#12 |
| 20.3#28 | PA/G | 29#95 |
| 388.7#69 | YDS/G | 473.5#5 |
| 250.7#44 | PASS/G | 250.8#43 |
| 138#90 | RUSH/G | 222.7#10 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 39.2%#75 | 3RD DOWN | 46.0%#23 |
| 0.18#57 | OFF PPA | 0.31#10 |
| 0.10#40 | DEF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| 40.5%#93 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.8%#29 |
| 39.2%#43 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.1%#61 |
| 72.1% | RET PROD | 76.0% |
| 1.37#13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#18 |
| +14#4 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
| 22.8 | SP+ | -2.1 |
| 26.9#2 | FPI | -4.3#84 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumLocationAustin, TX
Capacity100,119
SurfaceTurf
Opened1924
Elevation526 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
