Toledo @ Michigan State, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan State opens a 9.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan State a 72% chance.
SeriesMichigan State leads 1–0 · Michigan State won the last meeting, 58–0 · 1925
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TOL
Home-field edge MSU
Market lean MSU
Model projection MSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Toledo @ Michigan State
Your sims:Sims: MSU 0, TOL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSU −9.5TOL +9.5
TOTALOver 47.5Under 47.5
MONEYLINEMSU −375TOL +295
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Michigan State vs Toledo Stats ComparisonMSU vs Toledo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Michigan StateMSU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.6#89 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 29.9#104 | PA/G | 13.3#4 |
| 345.3#99 | YDS/G | 415.8#34 |
| 222.7#70 | PASS/G | 238.1#57 |
| 122.7#110 | RUSH/G | 177.7#41 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 34.6%#110 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#64 |
| 0.13#90 | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| 42.1%#72 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.6%#43 |
| 44.6%#110 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#4 |
| 20.9% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | -0.08#1 |
| 2.2 | SP+ | -9.1 |
| 0.3#65 | FPI | -3.0#79 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Spartan StadiumLocationEast Lansing, MI
Capacity75,005
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation836 ft
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