Duke @ Virginia, Week 8 · 2026
@
GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·VirginiaUVA1–0·ACC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Duke opens a 6.5-point underdog. Our model gives Duke a 35% chance.
SeriesVirginia leads 40–34 · Duke won the last meeting, 27–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge UVA
Market lean UVA
Model projection UVA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Duke @ Virginia
Your sims:Sims: DUKE 0, UVA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Virginia
Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)
Wvs NC State34–8Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADDUKE +6.5UVA −6.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEDUKE +225UVA −278
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Duke vs Virginia Stats ComparisonDuke vs Virginia Stats Comparison
2025 stats| DukeDUKE | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6#16 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 29.4#98 | PA/G | 19.6#22 |
| 423.6#25 | YDS/G | 419.1#29 |
| 285.4#11 | PASS/G | 239.1#55 |
| 138.2#88 | RUSH/G | 179.9#37 |
| 6.2#27 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 49.8%#11 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.24#24 | OFF PPA | 0.17#61 |
| 0.22#113 | DEF PPA | 0.06#23 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.4%#80 |
| 43.5%#96 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.9%#18 |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 9.5% |
| 1.33#26 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#46 |
| 5.6 | SP+ | 8.1 |
| 3.5#52 | FPI | 7.9#32 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Scott StadiumLocationCharlottesville, VA
Capacity61,500
SurfaceGrass
Opened1931
Elevation559 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Duke?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 8 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
