New Mexico State @ Sam Houston, Week 8 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Sam Houston a 42% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico State leads 2–1 · New Mexico State won the last meeting, 37–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge SHSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston
Your sims:Sims: SHSU 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs NMSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Sam HoustonSHSU | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8#127 | PPG | 21.6#111 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 27.6#88 |
| 316.8#121 | YDS/G | 327.8#115 |
| 184#110 | PASS/G | 250.3#45 |
| 132.8#98 | RUSH/G | 77.4#136 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#127 |
| 22.2%#136 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.00#132 | OFF PPA | 0.03#128 |
| 0.24#118 | DEF PPA | 0.10#41 |
| 36.3%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 36.4%#124 |
| 47.9%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#58 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| -26.0 | SP+ | -18.5 |
| -18.4#136 | FPI | -15.7#129 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumLocationHuntsville, TX
Capacity14,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1986
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 8 GAMES
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