East Carolina @ Alabama, Week 1 · 2026
@#13
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 27.5-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 99% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 1–0 · Alabama won the last meeting, 23–22 · 1998
99% One-score game
4% Cover ALA −27.5
71%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: ALA 0, ECU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
East Carolina2025: 9–4 (6–2 AAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Alabama98%- East Carolina3%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $105,889 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
East Carolina vs Alabama Stats ComparisonECU vs Alabama Stats Comparison
2025 stats| East CarolinaECU | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7#24 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 20.1#25 | PA/G | 19.2#20 |
| 449#19 | YDS/G | 367.7#84 |
| 272.7#21 | PASS/G | 263.5#29 |
| 176.3#46 | RUSH/G | 104.2#127 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 47.2%#15 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
| 0.19#49 | OFF PPA | 0.21#37 |
| 0.05#16 | DEF PPA | 0.07#28 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#54 |
| 37.6%#24 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#21 |
| 13.6% | RET PROD | 26.4% |
| 1.16#118 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#48 |
| -2.3 | SP+ | 17.6 |
| -0.6#68 | FPI | 20.1#8 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bryant-Denny StadiumFAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about East Carolina or Alabama?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
