Utah State @ Texas State, Week 8 · 2026
@
GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Texas State a 73% chance.
SeriesUtah State leads 1–0 · Utah State won the last meeting, 38–7 · 2012
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TXST
Home-field edge TXST
Model projection TXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Utah State @ Texas State
Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, USU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Texas State vs Utah State Stats ComparisonTexas State vs Utah State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas StateTXST | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#12 | PPG | 30.9#35 |
| 29#95 | PA/G | 28.7#90 |
| 473.5#5 | YDS/G | 409.8#40 |
| 250.8#43 | PASS/G | 246.9#48 |
| 222.7#10 | RUSH/G | 162.9#62 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3#24 |
| 46.0%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 34.5%#111 |
| 0.31#10 | OFF PPA | 0.20#41 |
| 0.16#71 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.1%#83 |
| 41.1%#61 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.7%#90 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 65.2% |
| 1.35#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#17 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| -2.1 | SP+ | -7.9 |
| -4.3#84 | FPI | -6.7#92 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)LocationSan Marcos, TX
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1981
Elevation584 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Texas State?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 8 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
