Liberty at James Madison: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction · CFB Vibes

Coastal Carolina VibesCCU Vibes

SBC · Week 1

NCAT @ GASTFri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM EDT LIB @ JMUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTESPNU ME @ APPSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDT MRSH @ PSUSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTFS1 ALCN @ USMSat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM CDT NORF @ ODUSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM EDT SHSU @ TROYSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT SELA @ USASat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT CHSO @ GASOSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM EDT ARST @ MEMSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT ULM @ MSSTSat, Sep 5 · 6:30 PM CDTESPNU NWST @ LTSat, Sep 5 · 6:30 PM CDT LAM @ ULSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM CDT

Liberty

@

James Madison

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT12:00 PM EDT

LibertyLIB0–0·CUSA

James MadisonJMU0–0·SBC

StreamingESPN App

LIB radioLiberty Flames Sports Network

JMU radioJMU Radio Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

James Madison opens a 6.5-point favorite. Our model gives James Madison a 69% chance.

SeriesJames Madison leads 5–1 · James Madison won the last meeting, 31–13 · 2025

WIN PROBABILITY

JMU 69% LIB 31%

PROJECTED FINAL

29

21

JMU win
69% One-score game
36% Cover JMU −6.5
54%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (Elo) JMU

Home-field edge JMU

Market lean JMU

Model projection JMU

Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.

Liberty @ James Madison

Your sims:Sims: JMU 0, LIB 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)

Lvs Kennesaw State48–42 (OT)Lat Louisiana Tech34–28 (OT)Lat Florida International34–27 (OT)

2025: 12–2 (8–0 SBC)

Lat Oregon51–34 Wvs Troy31–14 Wat Coastal Carolina59–10

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

James Madison70%
Liberty32%

CFB Vibes ModelJMU 69%MarketJMU 70%

Model and market agree

Kalshi · $20,810 traded · as of Sep 1, 7:21 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADLIB +6.5JMU −6.5

TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5

MONEYLINELIB +210JMU −258

DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice

Liberty vs James Madison Stats ComparisonLiberty vs JMU Stats Comparison

2025 stats

LibertyLIB		James MadisonJMU
25.6#83	PPG	37.1#9
26.5#76	PA/G	18.4#13
388.5#70	YDS/G	454.9#15
195.5#101	PASS/G	211.1#88
193#26	RUSH/G	243.7#6
5.7#65	YDS/PLAY	6.5#21
40.1%#65	3RD DOWN	46.7%#17
0.17#67	OFF PPA	0.23#31
0.20#105	DEF PPA	0.00#6
43.5%#51	OFF SUCCESS	45.2%#36
41.5%#68	DEF SUCCESS	30.1%#1
38.3%	RET PROD	8.0%
1.21#92	EXPLOSIVE	1.30#37
−7#112	TO MARGIN	+1#66
-5.3	SP+	-0.9
-7.7#96	FPI	-2.0#75

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Bridgeforth Stadium

LocationHarrisonburg, VA

Capacity24,877

SurfaceTurf

Opened1975

Elevation1,310 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES

TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME

#24

Louisville

VS#9

Ole Miss

Sun, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELMISS 67% to win

Ball State

@#1

Ohio State

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELOSU 99% to win

Boise State

@#2

Oregon

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM PDT

CFB VIBES MODELORE 94% to win

TNST@#3

Georgia

Sat, Sep 5 · 3:00 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELUGA 99% to win

Wisconsin

VS#4

Notre Dame

Sun, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELND 90% to win

Texas State

@#5

Texas

Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 97% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →

North Texas

@#6

Indiana

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELIU 99% to win

#7

Miami

@

Stanford

Fri, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM PDT

CFB VIBES MODELMIA 94% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →