Sam Houston @ Troy, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsWIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
TROY win
88% One-score game
22% Cover TROY −16.5
54%
88% One-score game
22% Cover TROY −16.5
54%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TROY
Home-field edge TROY
Market lean TROY
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Sam Houston @ Troy
Your sims:Sims: TROY 0, SHSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sam Houston
Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)
Lvs Florida International56–16Lat Middle Tennessee31–17Wvs Delaware26–23Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Troy88%- Sam Houston13%
CFB Vibes ModelTROY 88%MarketTROY 88%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $6,153 traded · as of Sep 1, 7:21 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSHSU +16.5TROY −16.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINESHSU +600TROY −900
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Sam Houston vs Troy Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs Troy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Sam HoustonSHSU | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8#127 | PPG | 23.5#95 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 23.9#58 |
| 316.8#121 | YDS/G | 307.2#124 |
| 184#110 | PASS/G | 209.2#90 |
| 132.8#98 | RUSH/G | 98#131 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 4.6#129 |
| 22.2%#136 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#80 |
| 0.00#132 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 0.24#118 | DEF PPA | 0.11#50 |
| 36.3%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.9%#117 |
| 47.9%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#40 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -26.0 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -18.4#136 | FPI | -7.4#95 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)LocationTroy, AL
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1950
Elevation508 ft
FAN NEWS
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