Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Michigan State opens a 17.5-point favorite. Our model gives Michigan State a 87% chance.
SeriesMichigan State leads 7–0 · Michigan State won the last meeting, 73–14 · 2014
87% One-score game
22% Cover MSU −17.5
53%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: MSU 0, EMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $7,912 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State Stats ComparisonEMU vs MSU Stats Comparison
| Eastern MichiganEMU | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5 | PPG | 30 |
| 22 | PA/G | 20 |
| 314.5 | YDS/G | 397 |
| 226.5 | PASS/G | 247 |
| 88 | RUSH/G | 150 |
| 4.6 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8 |
| 25.8% | 3RD DOWN | 33.3% |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| 0.01 | OFF PPA | 0.02 |
| 0.04 | DEF PPA | 0.28 |
| 35.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 37.6% |
| 33.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 28.6% |
| 72.1% | RET PROD | 20.9% |
| 1.20 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10 |
| 1353 | ELO | 1468 |
| -15.6 | SP+ | 1.0 |
| -15.5#126 | FPI | 1.3#62 |
THE VENUE
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