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All scores Iowa State @ Iowa, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Iowa StateISU1–0·B12
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Iowa opens a 14-point favorite. Our model gives Iowa a 84% chance.
SeriesIowa leads 47–23 · Iowa State won the last meeting, 16–13 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
IOWA win
84% One-score game
25% Cover IOWA −14
55%
84% One-score game
25% Cover IOWA −14
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IOWA
Home-field edge IOWA
Market lean IOWA
Model projection IOWA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Iowa State @ Iowa
Your sims:Sims: IOWA 0, ISU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Iowa State
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10
Iowa
Wvs Northern Illinois40–0
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelIOWA 84%MarketIOWA 84%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $37,487 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADISU +14IOWA −14
TOTALOver 40.5Under 40.5
MONEYLINEISU +470IOWA −650
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Iowa State vs Iowa Stats ComparisonIowa State vs Iowa Stats Comparison
| Iowa StateISU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | PPG | 40 |
| 303 | YDS/G | 507 |
| 195 | PASS/G | 218 |
| 108 | RUSH/G | 289 |
| 6.3 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5 |
| 40.0% | 3RD DOWN | 42.9% |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| 0.24 | OFF PPA | 0.06 |
| 35.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 41.8% |
| 27.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 17.2% |
| 1.7% | RET PROD | 34.2% |
| 1.76 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25 |
| 1586 | ELO | 1847 |
| 3.1 | SP+ | 18.0 |
| 10 | PA/G | 0 |
| -0.06 | DEF PPA | -0.33 |
| -0.8#68 | FPI | 11.0#26 |
THE VENUE
Kinnick StadiumLocationIowa City, IA
Capacity69,250
SurfaceTurf
Opened1929
Elevation724 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 2 GAMES
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