Around CFB · Week 2
FAMU @ MIAVILL @ LOUNORF @ UVARICH @ NCSURUTG @ BCMIZ @ KUOU @ MICHODU @ VTWSU @ KSUUSF @ ARMYORE @ OKSTHOW @ IUPSU @ TEMWOF @ KENTETSU @ UNCASU @ TA&MAPP @ ECUWAKE @ PURWKU @ UGAHC @ M-OHUTM @ WVUCOLG @ CMUSTBK @ BALLUSU @ WASHCCSU @ TOLUCF @ PITTDUKE @ ILLSHU @ MASSRMU @ AKREMU @ MSUWEB @ COLOMSST @ MINNULM @ UABRICE @ NDMD @ CONNALA @ UKARIZ @ BYUUTSA @ TXSTCAL @ SYRWAG @ JMUUNLV @ UNTALST @ TROYUCD @ SMUMERC @ UNMUNCO @ WYODEL @ VANCAM @ FLABUF @ FIUGWEB @ LIBJXST @ OHIOMEM @ BOISMONM @ WMUBGSU @ NEBLIN @ MOSTTOW @ SCILST @ NIUSUU @ CSUGAST @ KENNWCU @ CINUSA @ TULNSOU @ HOUWGA @ ARSTTENN @ GTMTSU @ MRSHTLSA @ SHSUWIU @ WISSDSU @ UCLATTU @ ORSTISU @ IOWAFOR @ CCUNAVY @ FAULT @ LSUOSU @ TEXGASO @ CLEMCLT @ MISSUSM @ AUBGRAM @ TCUPV @ BAYTXSO @ UTEPCP @ SJSUNDSU @ AFARK @ UTAHSAC @ FRESMTST @ NEVUL @ USCNMSU @ HAW
All scores UTSA @ Texas State, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Fubo Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on Fubo ▸ (opens in a new tab)
Terms & eligibility
Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Texas State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives Texas State a 54% chance.
SeriesUTSA leads 5–2 · Texas State won the last meeting, 43–36 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
TXST win
54% One-score game
40% Cover TXST −1.5
51%
54% One-score game
40% Cover TXST −1.5
51%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UTSA
Home-field edge TXST
Market lean TXST
Model projection TXST
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UTSA @ Texas State
Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, UTSA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UTSA
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16
Texas State
Lat Texas59–7
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelTXST 54%MarketTXST 54%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $19,553 traded · as of Sep 9, 9:49 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUTSA +1.5TXST −1.5
TOTALOver 66.5Under 66.5
MONEYLINEUTSA +102TXST −122
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 9:06 PM ETNot gambling advice
UTSA vs Texas State Stats ComparisonUTSA vs Texas State Stats Comparison
| UTSAUTSA | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | PPG | 7 |
| 16 | PA/G | 59 |
| 525 | YDS/G | 349 |
| 275 | PASS/G | 188 |
| 250 | RUSH/G | 161 |
| 9.1 | YDS/PLAY | 5 |
| 33.3% | 3RD DOWN | 57.1% |
| 0.51 | OFF PPA | 0.14 |
| 63.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 41.1% |
| 37.8% | DEF SUCCESS | 50.0% |
| 66.9% | RET PROD | 76.0% |
| 1.10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.13 |
| 1522 | ELO | 1441 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | −2 |
| -0.06 | DEF PPA | 0.46 |
| 2.9 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| -3.8#82 | FPI | -7.9#103 |
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)LocationSan Marcos, TX
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1981
Elevation584 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about UTSA or Texas State?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 2 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
