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All scores Southern Miss @ Auburn, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Auburn opens a 33.5-point favorite. Our model gives Auburn a 98% chance.
SeriesAuburn leads 18–5 · Auburn won the last meeting, 24–13 · 2018
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
AUB win
98% One-score game
6% Cover AUB −33.5
48%
98% One-score game
6% Cover AUB −33.5
48%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) AUB
Home-field edge AUB
Market lean AUB
Model projection AUB
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Southern Miss @ Auburn
Your sims:Sims: AUB 0, USM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Southern Miss
Wvs Alcorn State49–3
Auburn
Wvs Baylor17–16
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelAUB 98%MarketAUB 97%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $71,315 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUSM +33.5AUB −33.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEUSM +2500AUB −9000
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Southern Miss vs Auburn Stats ComparisonUSM vs Auburn Stats Comparison
| Southern MissUSM | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 49 | PPG | 17 |
| 3 | PA/G | 16 |
| 543 | YDS/G | 389 |
| 226 | PASS/G | 259 |
| 317 | RUSH/G | 130 |
| 6.5 | YDS/PLAY | 5.1 |
| 41.7% | 3RD DOWN | 55.6% |
| 0.40 | OFF PPA | 0.03 |
| 58.8% | OFF SUCCESS | 38.7% |
| 21.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 38.6% |
| 90.2% | RET PROD | 14.4% |
| 1.07 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16 |
| 1350 | ELO | 1613 |
| +4 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| -0.13 | DEF PPA | 0.05 |
| -14.9 | SP+ | 7.0 |
| -3.0#77 | FPI | 10.8#27 |
THE VENUE
Jordan-Hare StadiumLocationAuburn, AL
Capacity87,451
SurfaceGrass
Opened1939
Elevation660 ft
FAN NEWS
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