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All scores Mississippi State @ Minnesota, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Minnesota opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives Mississippi State a 51% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MINN win
49% One-score game
40% Cover MINN −1.5
46%
49% One-score game
40% Cover MINN −1.5
46%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MSST
Home-field edge MINN
Market lean MINN
Model projection MSST
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Mississippi State @ Minnesota
Your sims:Sims: MINN 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Wvs UL Monroe62–13
Minnesota
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMSST 51%MarketMSST 51%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $55,385 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSST +1.5MINN −1.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINEMSST −108MINN −112
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Mississippi State vs Minnesota Stats ComparisonMSST vs Minnesota Stats Comparison
| Mississippi StateMSST | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | PPG | 59 |
| 13 | PA/G | 7 |
| 762 | YDS/G | 495 |
| 417 | PASS/G | 348 |
| 345 | RUSH/G | 147 |
| 9.6 | YDS/PLAY | 7 |
| 45.5% | 3RD DOWN | 66.7% |
| 0.64 | OFF PPA | 0.34 |
| 58.2% | OFF SUCCESS | 60.3% |
| 29.6% | DEF SUCCESS | 10.9% |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 64.9% |
| 1.48 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.97 |
| 1584 | ELO | 1510 |
| 9.4 | SP+ | 9.6 |
| 8.6#33 | FPI | 2.3#59 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| -0.03 | DEF PPA | -0.38 |
THE VENUE
Huntington Bank StadiumLocationMinneapolis, MN
Capacity50,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2009
Elevation835 ft
FAN NEWS
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