Sacramento State @ Fresno State, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Fresno State opens a 18.5-point favorite. Our model gives Fresno State a 90% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 5–0 · Fresno State won the last meeting, 46–30 · 2024
90% One-score game
19% Cover FRES −18.5
57%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, SAC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $4,040 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Sacramento State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonSAC vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
| Sacramento StateSAC | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | PA/G | 39 |
| 360.5 | YDS/G | 116 |
| 234.5 | PASS/G | 77 |
| 126 | RUSH/G | 39 |
| 5.4 | YDS/PLAY | 2.6 |
| 35.7% | 3RD DOWN | 20.0% |
| 41.2% | OFF SUCCESS | 22.2% |
| 31.7% | DEF SUCCESS | 53.6% |
| 1.21 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.04 |
| 1476 | ELO | 1449 |
| 34.5 | PPG | 0 |
| −2 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| 0.14 | OFF PPA | -0.34 |
| -0.04 | DEF PPA | 0.33 |
| – | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| -19.1 | SP+ | -7.6 |
| -18.4#134 | FPI | -7.0#97 |
THE VENUE
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