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All scores San Diego State @ UCLA, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UCLA opens a 12.5-point favorite. Our model gives UCLA a 80% chance.
SeriesUCLA leads 18–1 · UCLA won the last meeting, 35–10 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UCLA win
80% One-score game
29% Cover UCLA −12.5
52%
80% One-score game
29% Cover UCLA −12.5
52%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) SDSU
Home-field edge UCLA
Market lean UCLA
Model projection UCLA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
San Diego State @ UCLA
Your sims:Sims: UCLA 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
Wvs Portland State53–20
UCLA
Wat California45–24
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUCLA 80%MarketUCLA 81%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $12,946 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSDSU +12.5UCLA −12.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINESDSU +380UCLA −500
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
San Diego State vs UCLA Stats ComparisonSDSU vs UCLA Stats Comparison
| San Diego StateSDSU | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | PPG | 45 |
| 20 | PA/G | 24 |
| 394 | YDS/G | 461 |
| 157 | PASS/G | 184 |
| 237 | RUSH/G | 277 |
| 6.3 | YDS/PLAY | 8.5 |
| 50.0% | 3RD DOWN | 54.5% |
| 0.23 | OFF PPA | 0.42 |
| 0.03 | DEF PPA | 0.13 |
| 46.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 56.6% |
| 42.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 33.7% |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 57.0% |
| 1.16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25 |
| 1518 | ELO | 1438 |
| 3.1 | SP+ | 9.2 |
| 1.2#63 | FPI | 5.1#46 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | +2 |
THE VENUE
Rose BowlLocationPasadena, CA
Capacity88,565
SurfaceGrass
Opened1922
Elevation804 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 2 GAMES
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