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All scores North Dakota State @ Air Force, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
North Dakota State opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives North Dakota State a 55% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
AF win
45% One-score game
41% Cover NDSU −2.5
48%
45% One-score game
41% Cover NDSU −2.5
48%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NDSU
Home-field edge AF
Market lean NDSU
Model projection NDSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
North Dakota State @ Air Force
Your sims:Sims: AF 0, NDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Air Force
Wvs Duquesne34–0
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNDSU 55%MarketNDSU 55%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $12,356 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNDSU −2.5AF +2.5
TOTALOver 47.5Under 47.5
MONEYLINENDSU −130AF +110
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
North Dakota State vs Air Force Stats ComparisonNDSU vs Air Force Stats Comparison
| North Dakota StateNDSU | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5 | PPG | 34 |
| 373 | YDS/G | 450 |
| 204.5 | PASS/G | 19 |
| 168.5 | RUSH/G | 431 |
| 5.5 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8 |
| 42.9% | 3RD DOWN | 60.0% |
| +5 | TO MARGIN | +2 |
| 0.24 | OFF PPA | 0.40 |
| 45.7% | OFF SUCCESS | 54.4% |
| 30.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 22.2% |
| 1.16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.00 |
| 1562 | ELO | 1424 |
| 2.6 | SP+ | 1.1 |
| 3.5 | PA/G | 0 |
| -0.31 | DEF PPA | -0.25 |
| – | RET PROD | 57.4% |
| 0.2#65 | FPI | -5.8#90 |
THE VENUE
Falcon StadiumLocationColorado Springs, CO
Capacity46,692
SurfaceTurf
Opened1962
Elevation6,643 ft
FAN NEWS
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