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All scores Alabama @ Kentucky, Week 2 · 2026
#12
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·AlabamaALA1–0·SEC
KentuckyUK1–0·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 10.5-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 76% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 39–2–1 · Alabama won the last meeting, 49–21 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UK win
24% One-score game
32% Cover ALA −10.5
53%
24% One-score game
32% Cover ALA −10.5
53%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ALA
Home-field edge UK
Market lean ALA
Model projection ALA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Alabama @ Kentucky
Your sims:Sims: UK 0, ALA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Alabama
Wvs East Carolina48–10
Kentucky
Wvs Youngstown State45–13
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelALA 76%MarketALA 78%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $64,665 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADALA −10.5UK +10.5
TOTALOver 49.5Under 49.5
MONEYLINEALA −395UK +310
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Alabama vs Kentucky Stats ComparisonAlabama vs Kentucky Stats Comparison
| AlabamaALA | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | PPG | 45 |
| 10 | PA/G | 13 |
| 487 | YDS/G | 506 |
| 260 | PASS/G | 301 |
| 227 | RUSH/G | 205 |
| 6 | YDS/PLAY | 8.3 |
| 53.3% | 3RD DOWN | 37.5% |
| 0.29 | OFF PPA | 0.56 |
| 52.5% | OFF SUCCESS | 60.7% |
| 22.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8% |
| 26.4% | RET PROD | 19.3% |
| 1.11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20 |
| 1823 | ELO | 1476 |
| 20.0 | SP+ | 8.5 |
| 22.5#9 | FPI | 6.5#40 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| -0.20 | DEF PPA | 0.08 |
THE VENUE
Kroger FieldLocationLexington, KY
Capacity61,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation1,009 ft
FAN NEWS
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