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All scores Duke @ Illinois, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·IllinoisILL1–0·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Illinois opens a 6-point favorite. Our model gives Illinois a 66% chance.
SeriesIllinois leads 2–1 · Illinois won the last meeting, 45–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) DUKE
Home-field edge ILL
Market lean ILL
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Duke @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, DUKE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Duke
Wvs Tulane17–3
Illinois
Wvs UAB42–23
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelILL 66%MarketILL 67%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $4,594 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADDUKE +6ILL −6
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEDUKE +180ILL −218
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Duke vs Illinois Stats ComparisonDuke vs Illinois Stats Comparison
| DukeDUKE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PPG | 42 |
| 3 | PA/G | 23 |
| 381 | YDS/G | 332 |
| 131 | PASS/G | 182 |
| 250 | RUSH/G | 150 |
| 4.9 | YDS/PLAY | 7.7 |
| 44.4% | 3RD DOWN | 50.0% |
| 0.00 | DEF PPA | 0.14 |
| 29.5% | OFF SUCCESS | 56.8% |
| 30.9% | DEF SUCCESS | 43.0% |
| 17.1% | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| 1.24 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35 |
| 1607 | ELO | 1595 |
| 6.6 | SP+ | 7.5 |
| 4.7#50 | FPI | 5.7#45 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| -0.05 | OFF PPA | 0.53 |
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
FAN NEWS
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