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All scores New Mexico State @ Hawai'i, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Hawai'i opens a 7.5-point favorite. Our model gives Hawai'i a 72% chance.
SeriesHawai'i leads 11–1 · Hawai'i won the last meeting, 20–17 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
HAW win
72% One-score game
34% Cover HAW −7.5
55%
72% One-score game
34% Cover HAW −7.5
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) HAW
Home-field edge HAW
Market lean HAW
Model projection HAW
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
New Mexico State @ Hawai'i
Your sims:Sims: HAW 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelHAW 72%MarketHAW 73%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $32,847 traded · as of Sep 9, 9:49 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNMSU +7.5HAW −7.5
TOTALOver 49.5Under 49.5
MONEYLINENMSU +235HAW −290
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 9:06 PM ETNot gambling advice
New Mexico State vs Hawai'i Stats ComparisonNMSU vs Hawai'i Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | PPG | 16.5 |
| 24 | PA/G | 29 |
| 424.5 | YDS/G | 308 |
| 283.5 | PASS/G | 226 |
| 141 | RUSH/G | 82 |
| 6.5 | YDS/PLAY | 4.1 |
| 56.7% | 3RD DOWN | 43.6% |
| 0.13 | DEF PPA | 0.25 |
| 42.1% | OFF SUCCESS | 34.4% |
| 40.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 41.6% |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 64.5% |
| 1.56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.26 |
| 1259 | ELO | 1426 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | −2 |
| 0.29 | OFF PPA | -0.01 |
| -15.0 | SP+ | -7.0 |
| -13.0#120 | FPI | -6.9#95 |
THE VENUE
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexLocationHonolulu, HI
Capacity15,194
SurfaceTurf
Opened2015
Elevation66 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about New Mexico State or Hawai'i?
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