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All scores UNLV @ North Texas, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UNLV opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives UNLV a 59% chance.
SeriesUNLV leads 5–1 · UNLV won the last meeting, 58–27 · 2022
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UNT win
41% One-score game
40% Cover UNLV −3
50%
41% One-score game
40% Cover UNLV −3
50%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNT
Home-field edge UNT
Market lean UNLV
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UNLV @ North Texas
Your sims:Sims: UNT 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
North Texas
Lat Indiana52–16
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 59%MarketUNLV 61%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $31,475 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUNLV −3.5UNT +3.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEUNLV −175UNT +145
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
UNLV vs North Texas Stats ComparisonUNLV vs North Texas Stats Comparison
| UNLVUNLV | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | PPG | 16 |
| 16.5 | PA/G | 52 |
| 412 | YDS/G | 367 |
| 203.5 | PASS/G | 215 |
| 208.5 | RUSH/G | 152 |
| 5.9 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5 |
| 33.3% | 3RD DOWN | 40.0% |
| 0.12 | OFF PPA | 0.14 |
| 0.09 | DEF PPA | 0.65 |
| 35.2% | OFF SUCCESS | 34.8% |
| 39.4% | DEF SUCCESS | 52.2% |
| 15.4% | RET PROD | 2.5% |
| 1.44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.55 |
| 1589 | ELO | 1590 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| 2.3 | SP+ | -13.2 |
| 2.3#58 | FPI | -6.7#93 |
THE VENUE
DATCU StadiumLocationDenton, TX
Capacity30,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation652 ft
FAN NEWS
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