Around CFB · Week 2
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All scores Navy @ Florida Atlantic, Week 2 · 2026
GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Navy opens a 5.5-point favorite. Our model gives Navy a 61% chance.
SeriesNavy leads 3–0 · Navy won the last meeting, 42–32 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NAVY
Home-field edge FAU
Market lean NAVY
Model projection NAVY
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Navy @ Florida Atlantic
Your sims:Sims: FAU 0, NAVY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Navy
Wvs Towson42–15
Florida Atlantic
Lat Florida66–21
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNAVY 61%MarketNAVY 65%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $2,343 traded · as of Sep 9, 7:34 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNAVY −4.5FAU +4.5
TOTALOver 58.5Under 58.5
MONEYLINENAVY −205FAU +170
DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice
Navy vs Florida Atlantic Stats ComparisonNavy vs FAU Stats Comparison
| NavyNAVY | Florida AtlanticFAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | PPG | 21 |
| 15 | PA/G | 66 |
| 527 | YDS/G | 396 |
| 21 | PASS/G | 276 |
| 506 | RUSH/G | 120 |
| 6.7 | YDS/PLAY | 4.4 |
| 58.3% | 3RD DOWN | 50.0% |
| 0.48 | OFF PPA | 0.11 |
| 0.05 | DEF PPA | 0.62 |
| 63.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 40.2% |
| 28.6% | DEF SUCCESS | 54.4% |
| 13.8% | RET PROD | 68.4% |
| 1.02 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.12 |
| 1550 | ELO | 1189 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | −2 |
| 3.6 | SP+ | -12.2 |
| -0.6#67 | FPI | -15.3#124 |
THE VENUE
FAU StadiumLocationBoca Raton, FL
Capacity29,419
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation12 ft
FAN NEWS
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